How do Mainstream Securities Firms View the Supply and Demand Landscape of the CPO Industry in 2026? Are There Disagreements?

URL: https://alice.wind.com.cn/#/zh/customers/8 Summary: Driven by AI computing power, CPO and high-speed optical modules have reached an inflection point in volume release.

Detailed Content:

• I. Demand Side: The Prosperity Consensus Driven by AI

  • 1. Resonance of Demand Logic
    • Synchronized volume release for training and inference: Changjiang Securities points out that the accelerated penetration of ASIC chips, due to their significant TCO advantages, stimulates optical modules more strongly than general-purpose GPUs under the same computing power scale.
    • Migration of demand structure: Western Securities believes that AI computing power demand is accelerating its shift from the training side to the inference side.
  • 2. Demand Forecasts for High-Speed Products
    • 800G Optical Modules: Global demand is around 40 million units (Guosen Securities, CSC Financial) - Driven by AI demand, high growth continues.
    • 1.6T Optical Modules: Demand expectations doubled to 20 million units (Market Analysis) - Entering an explosive phase, demand forecasts significantly revised upward.
    • 1.6T Optical Modules: Expected to exceed 7 million units (Guosen Securities) - Entering the stage of mass production and order fulfillment.
    • 1.6T Optical Modules: Bulk orders received (Huagong Genuine) - Production capacity will be systematically released in 2026.
  • Consensus Summary: 800G optical modules will continue to maintain high-speed growth in 2026, while 1.6T optical modules will move from R&D verification into the first year of large-scale commercialization.

• II. Technological Evolution: Clear CPO Trend, but Divergence in Commercialization Pace

  • 1. Consensus on Technical Value
    • Significant performance advantages: CPO technology can significantly reduce signal loss, system power consumption, and size.
    • Long-term penetration rate is promising: Guosen Securities predicts that by 2029, the penetration rate of CPO is expected to reach 50%.
  • 2. Divergence in Industrialization Process
    • Optimistic expectations (Commercialization starting in 2026): Western Securities notes that Nvidia plans to officially launch it to the market in 2026.
    • Cautious expectations (More time needed): Guosen Securities / Zheshang Securities believe that the formation of standards and mature applications still require time.

• III. Competitive Landscape: Concentration at the Top, Consensus on the Strong Getting Stronger

  • 1. Concentrated Market Share: China already occupies 7 of the top 10 optical module manufacturers globally.
  • 2. Advantageous Positioning of Leading Companies: Zhongji InnoLight (over 40% market share in 800G), Eoptolink, TFC Optical Communication (production capacity released in Thailand).
  • 3. Multi-Party Competition and Cooperation in the Industry Chain: Involves chip manufacturers, optical module manufacturers, and system integrators.

• IV. Comprehensive Supply and Demand Judgment: Continued High Prosperity, Focus on Structural Changes

  • 1. Overall Judgment of Supply and Demand Situation: The demand side continues to exceed expectations, the top-tier supply side capacity is released, and leading companies are expected to experience a "rise in both volume and price."
  • 2. Core Contradictions to Watch: Upstream optical chips and other segments may continue to fall short of demand; technological iterations may reshape the supplier landscape.

• V. Summary of Consensus and Divergence

  • Demand-Driven: The resonance of AI training and inference demand drives high growth in demand for high-speed optical modules and CPO.
  • Technological Evolution: CPO is a clear long-term technological trend.
  • Competitive Landscape: Market share is concentrating towards the top players.
  • Core Conclusion: The CPO industry will maintain high prosperity in 2026; the uncertainty lies in the pace of commercialization.